Introduction to Maths & Expected Value (EV)
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- EV means “ expected value ”. In poker, this refers to the average amount of money a player can expect to win or lose by taking a certain action during a hand.
- Expected value refers to the amount of money we can expect to win/lose on average after making a certain decision at the poker tables. It has the exact same meaning as expectation. A poker decision that is expected to make money in the long run can be described as a decision with a ‘positive expected value’ or “plus-EV” (+EV) for short.
EV (bet) = P (X)amt (X) + P (Y)amt (Y) + P (Z)amt (Z) We know that each of his possible poker hands is equally likely (2 aces left, times the specific.
Poker is a game steeped in skill and strategy, and in order to be successful you need to be able to make profitable calculations when it comes to calling re-raises and betting into pots. If poker were just a game of luck and chance, then without any strategy we would see a more extensive list of winners in major tournaments such as the WSOP and European Poker Tour. Phil Hellmuth, for example, has a record 11 WSOP bracelets, but if the tournments he played in were just a game of luck then it would be quite frankly impossible for him to have won so many times in such large fields. Statistically, he’d have less than a 1/2,000 chance of winning each title – not to mention 11!
Thus, since we can conclude poker is not just a game of luck, and is in fact riddled with mathematical calculations and decisions, we can now look at one of the most important cocepts that sets the foundations for profitable poker strategy – expected value.
What is Expected Value?
Expected value is a mathematical concept used to judge whether calling a raise in a game of poker will be profitable. When an opponent raises a pot in poker, such as on the flop or river, your decision whether to call or fold is more or less completely dependant on expected value. This is the calculation of whether the probability of winning a pot will make a call profitable in the long-term.
Free roulette win real money. Calculating Expected Value in Poker
To calculate the expected value of a hand in poker we need to take into account the price of entering a pot, the probability of winning it (for example hitting a draw) and the value of the pot overall. The formula for expected value in poker is:
EV = (Size of Pot x Probability of Winning) – Cost of Entering it.
Example Calculating EV in Poker: Let’s say we have a pot worth $50 and it’ll cost us $10 to enter it. The chances of winning the pot are 25%. That means using the formula above, the expected value of entering the pot will be 60*0.25 – 10 = $5. Because the number is positive (5>0), we can say that it will be a profitable decision to make in the long term. For more information on making ev poker decisions, you can visit the pokerbankrollblog.com.
Most importantly, the use of expected value as a mathematical guide in poker requires more than just learning the formula. For example,when you’re playing a No Limit Holdem cash game and have a drawing hand you’ll need to know precisely what your chances of completing your hand to win the pot are (aka counting your outs). You’ll therefore need to learn how to calculate your pot odds and “outs” in poker.
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EV is an abbreviation for expected value. Regardless if you play poker, blackjack or on horses you will always have an expected value for the outcome of your play. Most people who play poker or doing others sorts of gambling usually don’t know the exact conditions of the game they play.
The meaning of EV and what is it good for?
The basic meaning of EV or expected value is the potential long-term equity in a specific situation. It can be applied on all sorts of things, but are often used in context of gambling.
A knowledge about the exact relations concerning EV when playing on lottery isn’t very important. Since it always will be negative, it’s more about the hope for luck than the possibilities of getting a steady income by winning on a regular basis.
In poker, on the other hand, the situation is more dynamic. All decisions you make will affect your results in some way. Opposite to lottery, in poker you can actually achieve a positive expected value. Not being aware of what your expectations are in a particular situation is a serious risk factor concerning your total result.
Positive and negative EV
There are positive and negative EV, and in some situations also the possibility of a neutral EV (+/- 0 EV). Positive EV means that you can expect a positive long term result in a given situation and negative EV is the opposite. As a consequence, you want to bet as much as possible when you have a positive expectation and as little as possible when you have a negative expectation. Your guidance to this cause is the odds. Within every situation in poker there are odds of the possible outcomes. The more you know about the odds, the more times can you get an advantage, or, as gamblers put it: getting the best of it.
Let’s look at an example that show what EV is about .. You bet on rolling the dice: if you bet $1 you could win $4 on the numbers 1 and 2. If we make a calculating of this we can see that you will win $1.33 for every dollar you bet. (The 2 numbers will come up 1/3 of the times and when being worth $4, 0.33*4=1.33.) Here we can see that you have a positive expected value and you will earn money in the long run on this bet.
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In poker things will not be as simple as in this example. Poker is a game of imperfect information and you cannot calculate what you don’t know. But through knowledge and experience you can make estimations that serve your calculations. Poker isn’t about to be sure, but to make the correct analysis.
You will for a certain win in the long run in situations with positive EV in poker, and by short terms you will maybe win. The variance is, however, big from a short perspective and can be illustrated by graphs.
To always follow an approach that yields good winning chances is easy to formulate in words, but much more difficult to make a practice of in reality. This is because poker not only consist of mathematics and strategical elements, but also lots of psychology.
The EV perspective is the right way to approach gambling, including poker. Try to always think: 'Do I have a positive EV or not?' and play only when you do have +EV. This can be applied to everything from table selection to a single call decision. In abstract terms, EV is everything in poker.
Risk aversion
The risk aversion differ between people. Whereas some doesn't like the idea to gamble that much, others willingly do just that provided that the odds are favorable.
Positive Ev Poker
People with high risk aversion are simply not suitable for a game such as poker in which you must risk something to get something. Even if the gamble have a positive outcome in the long run some, not everyone likes the idea of a possible short run loss, especially if lots of money is on stake. Play free slots win real prizes.
Ev Poker Chart
Ev Poker
Any advantage player, a gambler looking for a mathematical edge to exploit before wagering on something, will accept taking big risks as long the outcome seems to be positive in the long run and that his bankroll can tolerate a loss. By only gamble in situations with minor risks, the potential winning prospect decrease.
A concrete example of this in Texas would be a player that do an over raise with a strong hand to “kill the hand”. He wants to win immediately. Sure, sometimes it's correct to protect the hand, but it's better to do that with calculated value bets than over bets.
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